He runs the Trafalgar Group, and he says the same stealth voters that elected Donald Trump in 2016, are about to do it again in. Watch the live stream of Fox News and full episodes. Please enter valid email address to continue. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. But what we have found is there's agreement and it is almost bipartisan is that if all the states had gotten their stuff together in the way, like a Texas and Florida did, and they had announced all the election votes on election night and announced Biden would win, there would be a different opinion. ", Producers: Jamie Benson, Jacob Rosen, Sara Cook and Eleanor Watson, CBSN Production: Eric SoussaninShow email:TakeoutPodcast@cbsnews.comTwitter:@TakeoutPodcastInstagram:@TakeoutPodcastFacebook:Facebook.com/TakeoutPodcast, First published on December 17, 2021 / 6:00 AM. But I do think that theyre not very representative of younger people because people just really dont answer them. Published: December 16th, 2020 / Modified: December 16th, 2020. And theres a difference. Though Cahaly inaccurately predicted Trump would win re-election, he told Newsweek he was happy with Trafalgar Group's polling margins in several key battleground states. We had two things happen. Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly joins 'Sunday Morning Futures' to assess the possible outcomes for key races in the midterm elections and how Republicans could perform. I mean, if you want to ask what I think happened and were going to spend a lot of time studying this but on first blush, Republicans have no idea how to do get out the vote. The Democrats are very good at it. They just like hearing she went," Cahaly said. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Terms of Service apply. In the Colorado Senate race, he predicted Republican Joe O'Dea would lose to incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet in a 2-point squeaker. Kate Bedingfield, Bidens Translator, Leaves the White House. Born in rural Georgia, Robert Cahaly was raised in Pendleton, South Carolina, and began his work in politics at age 10 campaigning door-to-door for a local county race. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Support SSG. 00:00 00:00. In addition to his questions surrounding the Democratic-leaning voting bloc and the determination driving both parties to urge high voter turnout, Cahaly said he will also keep an eye on a less emotional factor next week: the weather. In the 2022 cycle, Cahaly and Trafalgar were most accurate or second most accurate in the following races: OH Gov, NV Gov, NC Sen, NH Gov, GA Gov and GA Sen Runoff and NY Gov. So we asked the question to ROBERT CAHALY of the Trafalgar Group, one of the great contrarians in the polling industry, and a rising star who has outperformed virtually every other pollster in recent elections. And a chatbot is not a human. You dont throw out the top side that hasnt really had a problem, you throw out the bottom side. George Santoss Nasty Twitter Battle With Fellow New York Republicans. Cahaly, who founded the opinion polling firm Trafalgar Group, received an A-minus grade from FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Rankings and accurately predicted former President Trump's victory in 2016 and the results of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections in 2021. In Michigan, you had Tudor Dixon beating Gretchen Whitmer by one percent, and she ended up losing by 12. Life Liberty Levin. Emily Kohrs didnt do anything wrong, and the medias harsh treatment of the Fulton County foreperson was a gift to Trumps lawyers. The only firm to a difference of under 2% while most firms were over 3% and 538 was at over 4%. In New Mexico, Republican Mark Ronchetti was anticipated to score a 1-point upset of Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Cahaly has particular experience and expertise in strategy, polling, and data analytics. Cahaly stood firm saying, On Wednesday Im either going to be the guy who got it right, or nobody is going to listen to me anymore. Breitbart 11/7/16. Born in rural Georgia, Robert Cahaly was raised in Pendleton, South Carolina, and began his work in politics at age 10 campaigning door-to-door for a local county race. Whoops! 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. ", The Trafalgar Group's polling methods: "You know, our premise is people lie, people lie to their doctor, they lie to their lawyer, they lie to their priest and all of a sudden they become Honest Abe when they take a poll? The one thing to be wary of is an ice storm in Atlanta," Cahaly said. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Robert C. Cahaly @RobertCahaly. They were called wackos and way out there, yet they were the closest. The Hill magazine named The Trafalgar Group as Winner on Winners and losers from 2020s election article. Anthony DEsposito has a bill to keep Santos, a fellow Republican, from profiting off his lies. North Carolina, Missouri, and even the race for governor in Nevada those were all relatively close. The network has reportedly instituted a soft ban on Trump, a huge problem for his campaign and for Fox News if the policy backfires. ", "I know everything, you know, looks like just a Republican landslide, but a lot of things can happen," Cahaly said. Not even close. Legal Statement. Democrats are too honest to do that. Its part of campaign to smoke out and then attack unpopular Republican cuts. "I'm a Republican, but if you think I'm going to make a poll look positive for somebody because of what party I'm in, you don't know me very well," Cahaly told CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett on this week's episode of "The Takeout" podcast. In fact, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight ranked him the 2nd most accurate pollster in America after the 2020 election. Fetterman defeated Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in one of several very tight midterm races this election cycle. So no legitimate media outlet is ever going to report a Trafalgar poll again, right? For the first time two of the nation's most accurate national polling firms in 2020 have teamed up, this time to survey the state in which both are headquartered: Georgia. While Cahaly said some Republican voters initially told Trafalgar Group pollsters they were unmotivated to participate in the runoffs following the presidential election, those individuals are coming back into the fold as the surprise of the election wears off. A comprehensive new government study concludes that the illness probably wasnt caused by foreign adversaries. Cahaly accurately predicted a close gubernatorial race in the deep blue stronghold of New York, a race Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul won by 6 points, and he was shockingly close to the final results in statewide races in Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina and Georgia. We're not playing that game. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. Vance, who eventually won the race by six points. That is what I said. In addition to . [3], Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus. or redistributed. Are you just letting the dust settle?Yeah, I want to wait for the last election to be settled. Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox. Pointing to polls ahead of the 2016 presidential election that showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the lead, Cahaly said there were elements of that election that needed to be factored into polling models to create accurate results. This, he thinks, creates skewed poll results. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Jeff Passan Explains New 2023 MLB Baseball Rule Changes, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): Fentanyl Epidemic Unique To America, Trey Gowdy Reacts To Alex Murdaugh Being Sentenced To Life In Prison For Double Murder, Gov. When it comes to the candidates, Cahaly said the likely voters polled appreciated Loeffler's participation in the debate earlier this month with Warnock, but were frustrated by Perdue's refusal to participate in a similar debate with Ossoff. "I call this new group 'submerged voters,'" Cahaly added. I know everything you know looks like just a Republican landslide, but a lot of things can happen. ", Midterms: "We are a political lifetime away from midterms. Neither one of those is in the top five. ", Hochul: All we have to do is see the name trafalgar. But this is the same thing that Democrats did in 2018, and it was very successful. Your model didnt see that coming. The other day somebody said, A lot of Republicans say that your polls helped motivate Republicans to turn out. I was like, I dont care. Thats not my goal. By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy and to receive email correspondence from us. So its not a money thing. + Harvard Affirmative Action Case, Why Biden is Underpriced + Golden Modelos for Best and Worst Trades of 2022, CFTC Meltdown at the Fifth Circuit + Chicago Mayoral Election. Another factor Cahaly said will likely keep voter turnout high is the amount of money pouring into the state in support of the candidates. Bennet won by double digits. / CBS News. He might be right about that, since he predicted a . City to Pay Millions to Protesters Kettled by NYPD in 2020. It's not the first time Cahaly has called races wrong. And so we're going to do a bigger survey," Cahaly said, adding that with traditional methods, pollsters are forced to rely on enthusiastic partisans, or sometimes those who are simply bored, to answer their questions. Reduce eye strain and focus on the content that matters. luckbox magazine and tastytrade are not licensed financial advisers, registered investment advisers, or registered broker-dealers. [12][bettersourceneeded], On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal robocalls. Bret Baier of FOXNews said Trafalgar really nailed a lot of these states with their polling. And so forth.The thing is if you look at the last three weeks, nobody was right. Yet it may not be a loss for the left. In 2022, the companys polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a red wave was about to crest. [1] Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. These are two accepted concepts. The subsequent decision of Cahaly v. LaRosa found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make robocalls. It's a projection device, and it would allow people to explain that, yes, maybe I'm for Hillary, but my neighbors are all for Trump, and it let them say they were for Trump without being judged. ", Republicans and Democrats and the 2022 midterm elections: "I think that when people get this frustrated with the government, a throw the bums out mentality can take place and just vote against all incumbents can take place. You have critiqued live-caller polls that some other places do, which are very time-consuming and expensive, because you said that people who answer those polls are not representative of the average voter. He is also regarded as a specialist of issue advocacy and independent expenditure campaigns. Who Won the Midterm Elections 2022?Senate, House, Governor Results, dizzying number of battleground state polls, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Florida Republican Wants to Cancel Democrats Over Slavery. Twitter. Things you buy through our links may earn Vox Media a commission. Watch the full podcast with Robert Cahaly here: Follow him on Twitter at: http://www.twitter.com/keendawg, Your email address will not be published. Nov 10, 20223:44 PM. I call this new group "submerged voters". [15], Cahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that Donald Trump would carry the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania in the 2016 United States presidential election. This group is very solidly Democratic," Cahaly said, adding that the group is likely to participate in the runoffs, as well. We had a lack of other polling this fall Im sure youve noticed that the big networks didnt do anything in the last couple of weeks, which is surprising. So youre full speed into 2024. During a press conference, the mayor said his words about not believing in the separation of church and state were just his own beliefs. "We really like different collection methods like we use tax, we use emails, online platforms so we can mix all of those with live calls and get a really good sense. One Trafalgar Group poll showed New York's Democratic Attorney General Letitia Jamesa key political opponent of Trumpdown by just a single point to Republican candidate Michael Henry. This obviously is not an exact science, all this stuff. She explains the press to the president, preaches Twitter-is-not-real-life, and keeps the West Wing from leaking. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any person. More than 2.1 million Georgians have voted early with one week remaining until the runoff elections, according to the nonpartisan website Georgia Votes. He offered gold-wrapped candy bars in a stunt that showed he isnt a worthy successor to his dad. ', Senior strategist at the Trafalgar Group Robert Cahaly estimated what pollsters keep getting wrong and the reason behind under-reporting GOP support on "Unfiltered with Dan Bongino.". A significant part of Cahaly's belief in his polling results is tied to the anonymous poll respondent strategy Trafalgar Group uses. It's gonna show that we're neck and neck, or shows that Lee Zeldin's beating me today. [14] After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. 2016-2022 All rights reserved. . For pollster Robert Cahaly, producing illuminating surveys and with accurate results is more important than party politics. Our turnout model just didnt have it there. [1], Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. Meanwhile, Cahaly said Republicans are concerned about the possibility of a Democrat-controlled Congress and executive branch if both Republican incumbents lose in the January 5 runoffs. We just put out our numbers as we have them. He's also called races correctly, or at least captured a trend. So I mean, these things can happen. "This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate. I mean, you know, God forbid, some kind of terrorism, and there's so many things that can completely derail what people expect to happen in politics. "To be honest, most people didn't watch it. I didnt say they didnt represent average voters. Robert Cahaly On Republican Surge In The Polls Ahead Of The Midterms Oct 28, 2022 Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar polling group joined the Guy Benson Show to break down his. In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly defied the polling consensus and predicted Trump to win reelection, only for him to incorrectly predict the result in five battleground. Because it is not going to affect your behavior, then don't waste your money.'" ", Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. One polla survey of the Ohio Senate racepredicted a double-digit win for Republican J.D. Cahaly, a Republican pollster with the Trafalgar Group, had preelection surveys that showed Trump nudging out Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolinaall of which. After the jury found Murdaugh guilty of murdering his wife and son, he was given two consecutive life sentences. You\'ll receive the next newsletter in your inbox. Do you know any young people who answer the phone and take 30 questions? Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar group joined the Guy Benson Show to give his polling predictions and analysts heading into the election day. "'Like, do you really want to know?' This is the new reality of midterms theres high turnout, ever since Trump.But even 2018 was no comparison to 2020. Those surveys were off in New Hampshire. So how do youI would say its less our methodology and more our turnout model. What was surprising was the inclusion of Doug . It seems like something where you need to keep adjusting all the time.Thats not the weakness, though. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. *Sorry, there was a problem signing you up. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Using a method that relies on heavy weighting of "shy" Trump voters most pollsters miss, Cahaly has become revered by conservatives in recent years as one of the few pollsters in the country who can accurately predict the voting behaviors of the modern Republican base. Already a tastytrader? Nowhere is the lab-leak debate more personal than among the experts investigating the origins of COVID. Our own polls show that that's wildly wrong," Hochul said on MSNBC the week before Election Day. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. The Biden administration has essentially classified 'MAGA Republicans' as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them," Cahaly wrote on Twitter. It is irrelevant when the other side is doing the work they do. Did Kalshi Kill PredictIt and Polymarket? 6 REASONS WHY POLLS MISS w/ ROBERT CAHALY. Trading securities can involve high risk and the loss of any funds invested. I mean, you know, when Trump was sitting there in November of 2019, nobody knew what COVID was that radically affected his election. Perfect example look at New Hampshire. Yes, the generic ballot was more accurate. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors, and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. But it seemed like turnout was good generally, right? No, that's not reality," Cahaly joked. It runs through Iowa following the course set by Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz. Robert Cahaly, Chief pollster at The Trafalgar Group spoke with Fox News Radio's Guy Benson about where the 2020 race between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden stands in swing . That was not something that would have happened with Romney or Bush or McCain. I mean, there are international conflicts. Despite the hype about Ron DeSantis surging past Donald Trump, both Republicans look unusually strong at this early stage of the presidential race. Donald Trump Jr. Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in Pendleton, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995. Cahaly said his aim is for Trafalgar Group surveys is that they take three minutes or less to complete. ", What Trump voters in 2020 think about election security: "I believe they think it's everything, the entire spectrum. "But you're making money off of it. [13] Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. Nov 4, 2022 Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar group joined the Guy Benson Show to give his polling predictions and analysts heading into the election day. When you look at places that did not have the expected turnout, they were very off. Market data provided by Factset. "Watch the weather. Fox News Is Reportedly Shadowbanning Donald Trump. What we found is they're always going to up it a little bit. You cant. Cahaly, who founded the opinion polling firm Trafalgar Group, received an A-minus grade from FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Rankings and accurately predicted former President Trump's victory in 2016 and the results of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections in 2021. But Republicans came out too, and independents voted for Democrats. Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly Explains His Polling Miss just asking queestions Nov. 17, 2022 The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself By Benjamin Hart, associate editor at. In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying Americas support for Donald Trump. TRENDS: The Polls are WrongHeres Why, There IS a Shy Trump Voter, Correcting for Social Desirability Bias, & Nate Silver and the $10,000 Challenge. [2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. And they're just not in the top five [of issues for voters]. In a Twitter thread, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert C. Cahaly said that President Joe Biden 's recent attacks on so-called "MAGA Republicans" will make polling supporters of former President Donald Trump even harder to poll than in previous years.